A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
