Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
